فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 74 (پاییز 1401)

Today, geo-economics strategies play a significant role in the global economy and new dimensions have been considered, including the distribution of energy resources and their trade movements. In this study, evaluating the factors affecting the volume of oil trade in the corridors in the current period and till 2040 perspective is sought through the gravity approach and using the panel data model in the period (2008- 2020). Reviewed oil trade flows of the area include: Middle East-Southeast Asia, Middle East-China, Middle East-Japan, Middle East-Europe, Middle East-India, Middle East-Singapore, Middle East-Africa, Middle East-Australia, Russia and CIS-India and Russia and CIS-Middle East. The required data were acquired from IEA, BP and WDI databases. The results obtained from this model reveal that the variables affecting oil trade between countries include the amount of GDP of the importing country, the share of oil in the energy consumption of exporting countries, and the share of oil in the energy consumption of importing countries. On the horizon of 2040, the Middle East-China oil trade is projected to rank first, the Middle East-Southeast Asia oil trade to be ranked second, and the Middle East-India oil trade to be ranked third.

Examining the factors affecting changes in energy demand can help economic policymakers to adopt energy saving approaches. One method of examining these factors is factor analysis of energy demand. Given the high share of industry, especially energy-intensive industries in Iran's energy consumption, the purpose of this article is to analyse the factors affecting changes in energy consumption in all industrial industries and energy-intensive industries. For this purpose, the methods of analysis of Laspers, Division and Fisher index in the period 1397-1385 have been used. The results of factor analysis show that the energy consumption of all industries increased in the period under review and these findings are confirmed by real energy consumption statistics. The results also show that the main effective factor in increasing energy consumption of industries (year-on-year or in the whole period) is related to the effect of activity and other factors sometimes have an increasing effect and mainly a decreasing effect on energy consumption. Findings indicate the maximum role of energy intensity in reducing energy consumption of industries (including energy-intensive industries) and the positive role of structural effect in increasing energy consumption compared to the effect of activity is very small.

Financial inclusion and climate change are two important aspects of development. The issue of whether financial inclusion will improve environmental quality or not is contentious. It can provide a good perspective for countries to plan for economic development. We estimate dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and CO2 emission in developing countries with the highest level of pollution. Firstly, by using causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) bidirectional causality between environmental quality index and financial inclusion has been confirmed. Then, we use the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to construct index for financial inclusion. Then, a panel data model by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is estimated to address the endogeneity problem. We find that financial inclusion has led to higher CO2 emissions. Thus there have not been synergies between financial inclusion and environmental quality. Furthermore, our findings underscore the significant role of higher GDP, urbanization, industrialization, and increase in energy intensity contribute to higher level of carbon emissions in developing top-18 emitter countries. Interestingly, openness to trade seems to reduce CO2 emissions.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission due to the fossil fuels combustion in the world's manufacturing industries with a share of 30% of emission is considered as one of the important potentials for GHG emission reduction. In this study, using the logarithmic mean of Division index (LMDI) method, in combination with Kaya model, the factors affecting the emissions of Iranian manufacturing industries, including activity factors, industry structure, energy intensity, fuel composition and emission coefficient during the years 1378 to 1398 is identified and studied. According to the results, the effects of the level of industrial activity is the most important drivers for emissions in the industries of manufacturing factories, so that the amount of emissions has increased from 33.22 million tons in 1378 to 67.35 million tons in 1398. The drivers of the industrial structure acted in the opposite direction and decreased from -3.85 million tons in 1999 to -29.73 million tons. Also, greenhouse gas emission in chemical and petrochemical industries, cement factories and non-ferrous metal products increased by 60.38, 55.29 and 37.9 million tons, respectively. Changes in greenhouse gas emission in the oil and coal refining industries have also been almost constant during the period of this study.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of electricity tariffs in the domestic and industrial sectors on electricity consumption and macroeconomic variables. In this regard, statistical data for the period 1991-2020 based on seasonal frequency and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach (DSGE) have been used. In this study, it is assumed that there is a section in the household and enterprise section called the electricity sector subsidy. The scenario designed in this study is that in terms of a pattern of electricity consumption, electricity tariffs for high-consumption subscribers in the domestic and industrial sectors will increase. The results showed that with the price shock, the amount of electricity consumption in the domestic sector has decreased more than the industrial sector. In addition, the price shock has led to an increase in investment, GDP and consumption at the macroeconomic level. In fact, in terms of price effect and income resulting from this policy, the situation of the electricity industry and other macroeconomic variables has improved over a period of 5 years.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak crisis on the exchange rate with emphasis on oil price changes in the period of 2020/02/19 - 2020/12/20 on a daily basis. Markov switching approach has been used to estimate the pattern. The results show that the Covid-19 crisis and the growth of the number of patients alone do not have a significant effect on the exchange rate in the country, but in terms of oil price changes, the prevalence of Covid-19 leads to a significant increase in exchange rates in both regimes and exchange rates. Has been. This increase has been greater at the level and below the exchange rate regime. Accordingly, if the Covid-19 crisis can change oil prices by reducing oil supply and demand, it will have a positive and significant impact on the exchange rate at all levels. Because the main supply of foreign exchange in the Iranian economy is due to the country's oil revenues and restrictions on this factor can be effective in creating changes in the exchange rate in the country.

In this paper, regardless of the sanctions in the country, by examining the importance of time factor in starting development and harvesting operations from the common sample field, optimal production is estimated based on reservoir engineering equations and using Darcy equation and compressibility equation and solving mathematical model (maximizing NPV), three scenarios of cogeneration, earlier and later than the competitor in the form of two reciprocal contract methods and IPC have been examined and compared. The results show that in the cogeneration scenario, our country will not be harmed. But what distinguishes the benefits for the two rival countries is the volume of investment and harvesting technology, which is done by installing high-capacity surface facilities and digging more wells. In the second scenario, in addition to extracting from the field resources 10 years earlier and gaining benefits, the less production effects of the reservoir pressure drop are more noticeable to the competitor, and in the third scenario, the opposite will be true. Also, in all three scenarios, the estimation of the optimal output from the field and the net present value using the IPC method is more than the reciprocal method.

Financial crises are unpredictable and threatening the economic stability of countries. Hence, policymakers are forced to adopt appropriate tactics to defuse and resolve crises. One of the indicators that helps policymakers and economists is the exchange market pressure. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting the foreign exchange market pressure during 2008- 2009 financial crisis period in OPEC countries using the Fisher's linear function. The results of this research show that exports and imports have the greatest impact on the classification of countries based on the exchange market pressure. The health index is ranked second, followed by the third in the gross domestic product. Monetary variables such as liquidity and inflation are placed in the next ranks. Moreover, Savings, foreign direct investment, unemployment and the population had the least impact on the rating based on the exchange market pressure during the crisis period. The results also indicate that the OPEC countries (except Qatar) are ranked among a group of countries where the impact of the crisis has been remarkable for them.